Assessing the Probability of Victory for Each Contender in Elimination Chamber 2024

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Walking into this Saturday’s premium live event in Perth, the WWE Superstars competing in the 2024 Elimination Chamber matches all theoretically have a 1 in 6 shot at winning.

However, we all know that isn’t entirely true. Some of these men and women just have much better odds for one reason or another.

In some cases, it is their popularity and spot on the totem pole that puts them at a higher likelihood to win. Others have an outright story that needs to be finished (or at least, continued). Meanwhile, many of the 12 Superstars are there just to fill in the ranks, put on a good show and come up short.

So who stands the best chances to win these two matches?

Let’s break down all 12 Superstars in those 2 matches ranked from least likely to win to the ones you should place your bets on.

Women’s Elimination Chamber Match

6) Tiffany Stratton

Having just joined the main roster, being in this match alone is a huge win for Tiffany Stratton. At most, though, she’ll be getting an elimination or two. There’s a chance she’s the last one to be taken out by the winner, but I wouldn’t even go that far necessarily.

There just isn’t any realistic means for Stratton to win this. Why would WWE go with her against Rhea Ripley (or Nia Jax, technically) rather than some of the others? I just can’t see that happening.

She’ll put on a good show, but this isn’t her match to win.

5) Naomi

Being a babyface already jumps everyone else above Stratton as a more likely winner to fight Ripley. Having just made her return, Naomi gets another bump for capitalizing on that momentum.

However, that momentum is already fading. Naomi isn’t the type of Superstar who will be booked at the very top of the card all the time. She’s often in the midcard range.

Simply put, there are bigger fish to fry here. She might have a good 2024, but I don’t even think she’ll win any belts other than maybe the tag titles.

4) Raquel Rodriguez

Being the biggest woman in the match gives her an advantage. She just recently had a return, too, though her time away wasn’t nearly as long as Naomi’s.

The trouble with Raquel is that while she has a story here in that she’s Rhea’s friend and they’ve battled it out before, they’ve already done that. Going back to that well now, especially when there are other options available, isn’t something I can picture WWE doing.

If they hadn’t already done this feud, I would be putting her at least one spot higher.

3) Liv Morgan

Speaking of a story to tell, the Liv Morgan Revenge Tour idea does have something to it. She’s super popular with a very dedicated fan base. Morgan also had a return from injury that will give her some sympathy points to head in this direction and could very well have a match with Ripley to settle the score.

I just happen to think she’s going to be Ripley’s feud after WrestleMania, rather than at that show itself.

Morgan will probably put up a good fight, but be taken out by Raquel to sew some seeds of distrust there between the former teammates. Or she’ll simply get pinned by #2 or #1 on this list.

2) Bianca Belair

You can’t spell WrestleMania without EST, right? Well, at the moment, you can, in a way. Belair surely has to do SOMETHING at this show, but I’m not seeing her against Ripley happening this time around. I’ll go so far as to say that’s the title match next year, in some fashion.

I’m banking on the idea that Belair will somehow get a singles match with Jade Cargill, or she’ll team up with her (or Naomi) to fight for the women’s tag team titles. I don’t think winning this match is how she gets to Mania.

But even though I don’t think that, Belair’s track record speaks for itself. If anyone is going to win it other than my pick, it would be her.

1) Becky Lynch

There have been way too many times Becky and Rhea have stared each other down over this past year for WWE not to have had this in mind. They’ve stayed away from one another, too, to make sure it doesn’t feel like it’s been done to death.

The Man against Mami is going to happen. Set your clocks to it. I’m so confident in this prediction that despite the talented crop of other participants, it feels like a one-horse race in my mind.

Men’s Elimination Chamber Match

6) Logan Paul

There are a multitude of reasons why I assume Paul has the lowest chances to win here. The most important of them, by far, is that he’s already holding the United States Championship.

I cannot imagine a scenario where he either goes into WrestleMania holding that belt while challenging for the World Heavyweight Championship, or that he drops it after winning this in order to have a rematch with Seth Rollins out of the blue.

Yes, they have history. But Rollins is wrapped up in the Cody Rhodes, The Rock and Roman Reigns story now, alongside mostly one other guy who you’ll see at the #1 spot here.

Paul is going to defend the US title at WrestleMania. He’s not winning this.

5) Kevin Owens

Speaking of that United States title, it seems like Owens is one of the top candidates to fight for it, right? They had their match at Royal Rumble, but this feud has continued. Without a definitive conclusion, Owens has to be in the running to fight Paul at WrestleMania.

I still think other people will be involved, and that this won’t be a singles match. But that kind of rules Owens out for winning the Elimination Chamber. I barely rank him above Paul here, simply because he doesn’t have a title holding him back from fighting for another one.

Still, I think KO’s chances of winning this are in the single digits. Hopefully, he does fight for a title at Mania again, though. I’m a huge fan and want to see him hold that new title.

4) Bobby Lashley

To be honest, Lashley being in this fourth spot is almost just because I don’t know what WWE has planned for him. It could be as simple as dragging out The Pride against The Final Testament for WrestleMania and nothing more. Maybe he’s just going to be in the Andre the Giant Memorial Battle Royal.

Either way, I don’t see him fighting for this championship in any fashion. In a way, I feel like he’s almost the least likely to win and should’ve been replaced in this match by Bronson Reed just to get him on the card. But due to the US title situation, I’ll put him slightly above Paul and Owens.

3) LA Knight

Basically right smack in the middle is LA Knight, who not only doesn’t have a belt to get in his way, but technically isn’t truly tied down to anyone to feud with, either.

He’s one of my main contenders to challenge for that United States Championship at WrestleMania, though. But his feud with AJ Styles might get in the way of that. Or, maybe they’ll both be in that match, and we’ll get some sort of multi-man ladder match.

I give Knight an edge over Owens because he’s not linked up to Paul more than for any other reason. Now isn’t the time for him to fight for the title, against Rollins of all people.

2) Randy Orton

In another world, there’s a scenario where Orton wins this, takes the title and has some sort of storyline involvement with the 4 guys from the press conference. However, I see it much more likely Orton is fighting Solo Sikoa and helping the babyfaces come WrestleMania, before eventually turning heel and fighting Cody Rhodes for the title around something like SummerSlam.

You should never count Orton out. He’s won enough matches and titles to justify being a forever potential pick. But I’d be more shocked if he won this than if The Rock or CM Punk were suddenly added to the match and won instead, I’ll say that.

1) Drew McIntyre

If this is a straight-up winner situation where someone already announced for this match comes out the victor, it’s The Scottish Terminator. He’s so clearly the favorite to win that I’m surprised anyone really entertains the other options.

Drew is going hard with this heel turn and quest to win the title and restore credibility to himself. Will he do it? I actually think he’s going to fall short at WrestleMania, either due to a Damian Priest Money in the Bank cash-in, or something to do with Sami Zayn. But he has to make it to that title match first, and I think this is his path.

McIntyre winning this certainly wasn’t the plan a few months ago. Then again, based on Brock Lesnar’s absence, CM Punk’s injury, and the whole situation with The Rock, are we going to get anything at Mania this year that was the plan on December 2023, even?

Keep an eye out for Drew’s music playing at the end of this match. It’s happening.

How would you rank these men and women’s chances? Who do you think will win this weekend? Drop your thoughts in the comments below!

As the WWE Elimination Chamber event approaches in Perth, it’s clear that not all Superstars have an equal chance of winning. Factors such as popularity, storyline progression, and overall positioning on the roster play a significant role in determining the likelihood of victory. Let’s take a closer look at the 12 Superstars competing in the Elimination Chamber matches and rank their chances of winning.

Women’s Elimination Chamber Match:

6) Tiffany Stratton: As a newcomer to the main roster, Tiffany Stratton’s participation in this match is already a significant accomplishment. However, her chances of winning are slim. It’s unlikely that WWE would choose her over more established Superstars like Rhea Ripley or Nia Jax.

5) Naomi: Although Naomi recently made her return, her momentum is already fading. She tends to be positioned in the midcard range and is unlikely to win any titles other than possibly the tag team titles.

4) Raquel Rodriguez: While Raquel has a story with Rhea Ripley as her friend and former opponent, this feud has already been explored. WWE is unlikely to revisit it when there are other options available.

3) Liv Morgan: The idea of a Liv Morgan Revenge Tour has gained popularity among fans. She has a dedicated fan base and sympathy points due to her recent return from injury. However, it’s more likely that she will feud with Ripley after WrestleMania rather than at the event itself.

2) Bianca Belair: Belair is a highly talented Superstar who is sure to have a significant role at WrestleMania. However, it’s unlikely that she will win the Elimination Chamber match. Her track record speaks for itself, and if anyone other than the top pick were to win, it would be her.

1) Becky Lynch: The long-standing stare-downs between Becky Lynch and Rhea Ripley indicate that their match is inevitable. It’s highly likely that Lynch will win the Elimination Chamber match and face Ripley at WrestleMania. This prediction feels like a one-horse race, given the history between these two Superstars.

Men’s Elimination Chamber Match:

6) Logan Paul: Holding the United States Championship already puts Logan Paul at a disadvantage. It’s unlikely that he will challenge for the World Heavyweight Championship while holding another title or drop it after winning the Elimination Chamber match.

5) Kevin Owens: Owens is a top candidate to fight for the United States Championship, but his chances of winning the Elimination Chamber match are low. Other Superstars are more likely to win, and his ongoing feud with Paul may hinder his chances.

4) Bobby Lashley: Lashley’s placement in this spot is due to uncertainty surrounding his WrestleMania plans. It’s unclear if he will be involved in a significant storyline or simply participate in the Andre the Giant Memorial Battle Royal.

3) LA Knight: LA Knight is not tied down to any specific feud or championship, making him a contender for the United States Championship at WrestleMania. However, his feud with AJ Styles may complicate matters. He has a slight edge over Owens due to his lack of connection to Logan Paul.

2) Randy Orton: Orton is always a potential winner due to his track record, but it’s more likely that he will be involved in a storyline with Solo Sikoa and other babyfaces at WrestleMania before eventually turning heel and challenging for the title around SummerSlam.

1) Drew McIntyre: McIntyre is the clear favorite to win the Elimination Chamber match. His current heel turn and quest to regain credibility make him a strong contender. While he may fall short at WrestleMania, his path to the title match begins with winning this match.

As the Elimination Chamber event approaches, keep an eye out for Drew McIntyre’s music playing at the end of the match. It’s highly likely that he will emerge as the victor and secure his spot in the title match at WrestleMania.